Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE around 3.3–3.4 percent in mid-2026, and a resilient labor market have driven the 58 percent market-implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three officials favoring a hike amid energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. This outcome reflects trader consensus on steady policy through October, though the sizable 39.5 percent share assigned to other paths incorporates potential rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, the former including updated economic projections, remain key catalysts that could shift implied odds based on incoming CPI, employment data, and Fed communications.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,148 Vol.
$712,148 Vol.
2026/10/28
Pause–Pause–Pause
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,148 Vol.
$712,148 Vol.
2026/10/28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$236,140 Vol.
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$310,878 Vol.
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent above-target inflation, with core PCE around 3.3–3.4 percent in mid-2026, and a resilient labor market have driven the 58 percent market-implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three officials favoring a hike amid energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. This outcome reflects trader consensus on steady policy through October, though the sizable 39.5 percent share assigned to other paths incorporates potential rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, the former including updated economic projections, remain key catalysts that could shift implied odds based on incoming CPI, employment data, and Fed communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
音量
$712,148終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent above-target inflation, with core PCE around 3.3–3.4 percent in mid-2026, and a resilient labor market have driven the 58 percent market-implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three officials favoring a hike amid energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. This outcome reflects trader consensus on steady policy through October, though the sizable 39.5 percent share assigned to other paths incorporates potential rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, the former including updated economic projections, remain key catalysts that could shift implied odds based on incoming CPI, employment data, and Fed communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$712,148終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE around 3.3–3.4 percent in mid-2026, and a resilient labor market have driven the 58 percent market-implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three officials favoring a hike amid energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. This outcome reflects trader consensus on steady policy through October, though the sizable 39.5 percent share assigned to other paths incorporates potential rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, the former including updated economic projections, remain key catalysts that could shift implied odds based on incoming CPI, employment data, and Fed communications.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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