Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3% and headline projections revised higher to 3.6% for end-2026, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, forms the main driver behind Polymarket's leading outcomes of one or zero 25-basis-point rate hikes for the year. The June dot plot's median federal funds rate forecast of 3.8% and new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability have shifted trader consensus toward modest tightening, with futures pricing limited additional moves amid resilient growth. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI or employment data could refine these market-implied odds, which aggregate real-capital bets rather than certainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 4.7%
$287,566 Vol.
$287,566 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 4.7%
$287,566 Vol.
$287,566 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
$101,669 Vol.
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,179 Vol.
43%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 Vol.
23%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$31,570 Vol.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3% and headline projections revised higher to 3.6% for end-2026, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, forms the main driver behind Polymarket's leading outcomes of one or zero 25-basis-point rate hikes for the year. The June dot plot's median federal funds rate forecast of 3.8% and new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability have shifted trader consensus toward modest tightening, with futures pricing limited additional moves amid resilient growth. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI or employment data could refine these market-implied odds, which aggregate real-capital bets rather than certainties.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
音量
$287,566終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3% and headline projections revised higher to 3.6% for end-2026, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, forms the main driver behind Polymarket's leading outcomes of one or zero 25-basis-point rate hikes for the year. The June dot plot's median federal funds rate forecast of 3.8% and new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability have shifted trader consensus toward modest tightening, with futures pricing limited additional moves amid resilient growth. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI or employment data could refine these market-implied odds, which aggregate real-capital bets rather than certainties.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$287,566終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3% and headline projections revised higher to 3.6% for end-2026, alongside a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, forms the main driver behind Polymarket's leading outcomes of one or zero 25-basis-point rate hikes for the year. The June dot plot's median federal funds rate forecast of 3.8% and new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability have shifted trader consensus toward modest tightening, with futures pricing limited additional moves amid resilient growth. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI or employment data could refine these market-implied odds, which aggregate real-capital bets rather than certainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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