Recent FOMC communications and the July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 meeting. Elevated inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and supply shocks, supports the 59.5% implied probability of no change while lifting odds of a modest tightening to 24.0%. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.2% and solid GDP growth reduce pressure for easing, reflected in the lower 15.5% probability of a cut. Markets price these outcomes based on incoming data releases and policy signals through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 24%
25 bps decrease 16%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 5%
新規
新規
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
24%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
5%
No change 60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 24%
25 bps decrease 16%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 5%
新規
新規
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
$245 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$109 Vol.
16%
No change
$156 Vol.
60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$250 Vol.
24%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$109 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC communications and the July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 meeting. Elevated inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and supply shocks, supports the 59.5% implied probability of no change while lifting odds of a modest tightening to 24.0%. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.2% and solid GDP growth reduce pressure for easing, reflected in the lower 15.5% probability of a cut. Markets price these outcomes based on incoming data releases and policy signals through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
音量
$869終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC communications and the July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 meeting. Elevated inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and supply shocks, supports the 59.5% implied probability of no change while lifting odds of a modest tightening to 24.0%. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.2% and solid GDP growth reduce pressure for easing, reflected in the lower 15.5% probability of a cut. Markets price these outcomes based on incoming data releases and policy signals through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$869終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC communications and the July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike anchor trader expectations for the January 2027 meeting. Elevated inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and supply shocks, supports the 59.5% implied probability of no change while lifting odds of a modest tightening to 24.0%. Stable labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.2% and solid GDP growth reduce pressure for easing, reflected in the lower 15.5% probability of a cut. Markets price these outcomes based on incoming data releases and policy signals through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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