The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$225,341 Vol.
2026/12/31
3.9%
12%
3.8％
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6％
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
2%
2.0％
5%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 Vol.
3.9%
$44,197 Vol.
12%
3.8％
$41,312 Vol.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3.6％
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$33,052 Vol.
2%
3.0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2.0％
$564 Vol.
5%
1.0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$225,341終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$225,341終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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