The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
3% 確率
$16,315 Vol.
$16,315 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$16,315 Vol.
$16,315 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$16,315終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$16,315終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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