**Resilient economic fundamentals and subdued near-term recession signals underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.** Consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 1.8–2.2% in 2026 and 1.8–2.4% in 2027, supported by AI-related capital spending, productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures. Official models show smoothed recession probabilities near 0.6% as of June 2026, while economist surveys place the 12-month recession risk at 28–34%. The labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.5–4.9%, and the Fed’s policy stance balances persistent core PCE inflation pressures against downside growth risks from tariffs. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, Q3 GDP and employment data, and any escalation in geopolitical supply shocks. These factors sustain trader consensus favoring expansion over contraction through the horizon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
35% 確率
新規
新規
2027/12/31
はい
35% 確率
新規
新規
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Resilient economic fundamentals and subdued near-term recession signals underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.** Consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 1.8–2.2% in 2026 and 1.8–2.4% in 2027, supported by AI-related capital spending, productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures. Official models show smoothed recession probabilities near 0.6% as of June 2026, while economist surveys place the 12-month recession risk at 28–34%. The labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.5–4.9%, and the Fed’s policy stance balances persistent core PCE inflation pressures against downside growth risks from tariffs. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, Q3 GDP and employment data, and any escalation in geopolitical supply shocks. These factors sustain trader consensus favoring expansion over contraction through the horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
マーケット開始日： Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
音量
$2終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Resilient economic fundamentals and subdued near-term recession signals underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.** Consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 1.8–2.2% in 2026 and 1.8–2.4% in 2027, supported by AI-related capital spending, productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures. Official models show smoothed recession probabilities near 0.6% as of June 2026, while economist surveys place the 12-month recession risk at 28–34%. The labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.5–4.9%, and the Fed’s policy stance balances persistent core PCE inflation pressures against downside growth risks from tariffs. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, Q3 GDP and employment data, and any escalation in geopolitical supply shocks. These factors sustain trader consensus favoring expansion over contraction through the horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
音量
$2終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Resilient economic fundamentals and subdued near-term recession signals underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.** Consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 1.8–2.2% in 2026 and 1.8–2.4% in 2027, supported by AI-related capital spending, productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures. Official models show smoothed recession probabilities near 0.6% as of June 2026, while economist surveys place the 12-month recession risk at 28–34%. The labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.5–4.9%, and the Fed’s policy stance balances persistent core PCE inflation pressures against downside growth risks from tariffs. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, Q3 GDP and employment data, and any escalation in geopolitical supply shocks. These factors sustain trader consensus favoring expansion over contraction through the horizon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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