Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96% implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026, reflecting resilient U.S. economic momentum through mid-year. Preliminary Q1 and Q2 2026 GDP readings showed solid expansion driven by consumer spending, corporate earnings beats, and a stable labor market with unemployment near historic lows. The Federal Reserve has maintained a measured monetary policy stance, with the federal funds rate steady as inflation metrics like the July 2026 CPI continued to moderate without tipping into contractionary territory. Treasury yields and equity benchmarks remain supportive of growth, underscoring trader focus on base-rate continuity over recession signals. While tail risks such as abrupt geopolitical shocks or sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could still shift the path, current data and forward indicators reinforce expectations for positive full-year growth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/29
はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96% implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026, reflecting resilient U.S. economic momentum through mid-year. Preliminary Q1 and Q2 2026 GDP readings showed solid expansion driven by consumer spending, corporate earnings beats, and a stable labor market with unemployment near historic lows. The Federal Reserve has maintained a measured monetary policy stance, with the federal funds rate steady as inflation metrics like the July 2026 CPI continued to moderate without tipping into contractionary territory. Treasury yields and equity benchmarks remain supportive of growth, underscoring trader focus on base-rate continuity over recession signals. While tail risks such as abrupt geopolitical shocks or sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could still shift the path, current data and forward indicators reinforce expectations for positive full-year growth.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96% implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026, reflecting resilient U.S. economic momentum through mid-year. Preliminary Q1 and Q2 2026 GDP readings showed solid expansion driven by consumer spending, corporate earnings beats, and a stable labor market with unemployment near historic lows. The Federal Reserve has maintained a measured monetary policy stance, with the federal funds rate steady as inflation metrics like the July 2026 CPI continued to moderate without tipping into contractionary territory. Treasury yields and equity benchmarks remain supportive of growth, underscoring trader focus on base-rate continuity over recession signals. While tail risks such as abrupt geopolitical shocks or sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could still shift the path, current data and forward indicators reinforce expectations for positive full-year growth.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96% implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026, reflecting resilient U.S. economic momentum through mid-year. Preliminary Q1 and Q2 2026 GDP readings showed solid expansion driven by consumer spending, corporate earnings beats, and a stable labor market with unemployment near historic lows. The Federal Reserve has maintained a measured monetary policy stance, with the federal funds rate steady as inflation metrics like the July 2026 CPI continued to moderate without tipping into contractionary territory. Treasury yields and equity benchmarks remain supportive of growth, underscoring trader focus on base-rate continuity over recession signals. While tail risks such as abrupt geopolitical shocks or sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could still shift the path, current data and forward indicators reinforce expectations for positive full-year growth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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