Recent quarterly GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized following Q1's 2.1%, have anchored trader focus on whether full-year growth settles in the 1.5–2.5% range amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capex in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies supports the upper end of that band, while softening consumer affordability, tariff effects, and slower labor-force growth exert downward pressure. Official projections from the CBO and FOMC median place 2026 growth near 2.2%, yet sticky core inflation and uneven sector performance keep outcomes tightly contested. Upcoming Q3 GDP data, labor-market releases, and any further policy adjustments represent key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities across the clustered 27–30.5% bands.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.0〜2.5％ 31%
1.5〜2.0％ 29.5%
>2.5％ 27%
1.0〜1.5％ 9.8%
$58,327 Vol.
$58,327 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
5%
0.5～1.0％
2%
1.0〜1.5％
10%
1.5〜2.0％
30%
2.0〜2.5％
31%
>2.5％
27%
2.0〜2.5％ 31%
1.5〜2.0％ 29.5%
>2.5％ 27%
1.0〜1.5％ 9.8%
$58,327 Vol.
$58,327 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$7,479 Vol.
5%
0.5～1.0％
$17,293 Vol.
2%
1.0〜1.5％
$3,824 Vol.
10%
1.5〜2.0％
$6,632 Vol.
30%
2.0〜2.5％
$7,095 Vol.
31%
>2.5％
$16,004 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized following Q1's 2.1%, have anchored trader focus on whether full-year growth settles in the 1.5–2.5% range amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capex in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies supports the upper end of that band, while softening consumer affordability, tariff effects, and slower labor-force growth exert downward pressure. Official projections from the CBO and FOMC median place 2026 growth near 2.2%, yet sticky core inflation and uneven sector performance keep outcomes tightly contested. Upcoming Q3 GDP data, labor-market releases, and any further policy adjustments represent key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities across the clustered 27–30.5% bands.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$58,327終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized following Q1's 2.1%, have anchored trader focus on whether full-year growth settles in the 1.5–2.5% range amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capex in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies supports the upper end of that band, while softening consumer affordability, tariff effects, and slower labor-force growth exert downward pressure. Official projections from the CBO and FOMC median place 2026 growth near 2.2%, yet sticky core inflation and uneven sector performance keep outcomes tightly contested. Upcoming Q3 GDP data, labor-market releases, and any further policy adjustments represent key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities across the clustered 27–30.5% bands.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$58,327終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized following Q1's 2.1%, have anchored trader focus on whether full-year growth settles in the 1.5–2.5% range amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capex in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies supports the upper end of that band, while softening consumer affordability, tariff effects, and slower labor-force growth exert downward pressure. Official projections from the CBO and FOMC median place 2026 growth near 2.2%, yet sticky core inflation and uneven sector performance keep outcomes tightly contested. Upcoming Q3 GDP data, labor-market releases, and any further policy adjustments represent key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities across the clustered 27–30.5% bands.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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