A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い？
2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い？
2番目に暑い 82%
史上1位の暑さ 36%
4番目またはそれ以下 30%
3番目に暑い 29%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
史上1位の暑さ
36%
2番目に暑い
57%
3番目に暑い
29%
4番目またはそれ以下
30%
2番目に暑い 82%
史上1位の暑さ 36%
4番目またはそれ以下 30%
3番目に暑い 29%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
史上1位の暑さ
$273 Vol.
36%
2番目に暑い
$1 Vol.
57%
3番目に暑い
$0 Vol.
29%
4番目またはそれ以下
$250 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
音量
$525終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$525終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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