The market's strong lean toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August, with the largest so far a 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and subsequent 7.7 and 7.5 shocks in Indonesia and Venezuela. USGS data confirm these occurred on known subduction segments where rupture dimensions have not yet produced the multi-hundred-kilometer slips needed for 8+ quakes. Historical annual maxima cluster around 8.0–8.5, yet the remaining months show no immediate precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or unusual strain accumulation reported by monitoring networks. Traders appear to weigh the statistical rarity of great earthquakes against ongoing moderate activity along the Ring of Fire and the limited time window before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年の最大地震マグニチュードは？
2026年の最大地震マグニチュードは？
7.9以下 66%
8.0～8.1 12%
8.2～8.3 10%
8.4～8.5 9%
新規
新規
2027/01/03
7.9以下
66%
8.0～8.1
12%
8.2～8.3
10%
8.4～8.5
9%
8.6～8.7
6%
8.8～8.9
7%
9.0以上
6%
7.9以下 66%
8.0～8.1 12%
8.2～8.3 10%
8.4～8.5 9%
新規
新規
2027/01/03
7.9以下
$97 Vol.
66%
8.0～8.1
$40 Vol.
12%
8.2～8.3
$55 Vol.
10%
8.4～8.5
$40 Vol.
9%
8.6～8.7
$60 Vol.
6%
8.8～8.9
$40 Vol.
7%
9.0以上
$27 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's strong lean toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August, with the largest so far a 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and subsequent 7.7 and 7.5 shocks in Indonesia and Venezuela. USGS data confirm these occurred on known subduction segments where rupture dimensions have not yet produced the multi-hundred-kilometer slips needed for 8+ quakes. Historical annual maxima cluster around 8.0–8.5, yet the remaining months show no immediate precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or unusual strain accumulation reported by monitoring networks. Traders appear to weigh the statistical rarity of great earthquakes against ongoing moderate activity along the Ring of Fire and the limited time window before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
音量
$357終了日
2027/01/04マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's strong lean toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August, with the largest so far a 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and subsequent 7.7 and 7.5 shocks in Indonesia and Venezuela. USGS data confirm these occurred on known subduction segments where rupture dimensions have not yet produced the multi-hundred-kilometer slips needed for 8+ quakes. Historical annual maxima cluster around 8.0–8.5, yet the remaining months show no immediate precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or unusual strain accumulation reported by monitoring networks. Traders appear to weigh the statistical rarity of great earthquakes against ongoing moderate activity along the Ring of Fire and the limited time window before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
音量
$357終了日
2027/01/04マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETThe market's strong lean toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the absence of any magnitude 8.0+ event through mid-August, with the largest so far a 7.8 offshore Mindanao in June and subsequent 7.7 and 7.5 shocks in Indonesia and Venezuela. USGS data confirm these occurred on known subduction segments where rupture dimensions have not yet produced the multi-hundred-kilometer slips needed for 8+ quakes. Historical annual maxima cluster around 8.0–8.5, yet the remaining months show no immediate precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or unusual strain accumulation reported by monitoring networks. Traders appear to weigh the statistical rarity of great earthquakes against ongoing moderate activity along the Ring of Fire and the limited time window before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問