Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Željka Cvijanović 87%
マリンコ・ボゾヴィッチ 5.3%
Siniša Karan 3.6%
Branko Blanuša 1.6%
$32,076 Vol.
$32,076 Vol.
2026/10/03
Željka Cvijanović
87%
マリンコ・ボゾヴィッチ
5%
Siniša Karan
4%
Branko Blanuša
2%
Nebojša Vukanović
1%
Draško Stanivuković
1%
Željka Cvijanović 87%
マリンコ・ボゾヴィッチ 5.3%
Siniša Karan 3.6%
Branko Blanuša 1.6%
$32,076 Vol.
$32,076 Vol.
2026/10/03
Željka Cvijanović
$27,074 Vol.
87%
マリンコ・ボゾヴィッチ
$300 Vol.
5%
Siniša Karan
$1,410 Vol.
4%
Branko Blanuša
$1,068 Vol.
2%
Nebojša Vukanović
$1,286 Vol.
1%
Draško Stanivuković
$939 Vol.
1%
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
音量
$32,076終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$32,076終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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