Trader consensus against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. That interim accord established a 60-day window for a final deal addressing Iran's stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending while deferring limits on future enrichment activities and verification access to sensitive sites. Iran has conditioned fuller cooperation on sanctions relief and rejected immediate inspections of damaged facilities, maintaining its position on nuclear rights amid stalled or extended talks. Discrepancies between U.S. demands for a complete halt and Iranian insistence on civilian enrichment capacity, combined with ongoing reconstruction at nuclear sites, have prevented rapid resolution. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in bargaining positions remain possible but face substantial procedural and substantive barriers before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$64,142 Vol.
$64,142 Vol.
2026/09/30
はい
3% 確率
$64,142 Vol.
$64,142 Vol.
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. That interim accord established a 60-day window for a final deal addressing Iran's stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending while deferring limits on future enrichment activities and verification access to sensitive sites. Iran has conditioned fuller cooperation on sanctions relief and rejected immediate inspections of damaged facilities, maintaining its position on nuclear rights amid stalled or extended talks. Discrepancies between U.S. demands for a complete halt and Iranian insistence on civilian enrichment capacity, combined with ongoing reconstruction at nuclear sites, have prevented rapid resolution. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in bargaining positions remain possible but face substantial procedural and substantive barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
音量
$64,142終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. That interim accord established a 60-day window for a final deal addressing Iran's stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending while deferring limits on future enrichment activities and verification access to sensitive sites. Iran has conditioned fuller cooperation on sanctions relief and rejected immediate inspections of damaged facilities, maintaining its position on nuclear rights amid stalled or extended talks. Discrepancies between U.S. demands for a complete halt and Iranian insistence on civilian enrichment capacity, combined with ongoing reconstruction at nuclear sites, have prevented rapid resolution. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in bargaining positions remain possible but face substantial procedural and substantive barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$64,142終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. That interim accord established a 60-day window for a final deal addressing Iran's stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending while deferring limits on future enrichment activities and verification access to sensitive sites. Iran has conditioned fuller cooperation on sanctions relief and rejected immediate inspections of damaged facilities, maintaining its position on nuclear rights amid stalled or extended talks. Discrepancies between U.S. demands for a complete halt and Iranian insistence on civilian enrichment capacity, combined with ongoing reconstruction at nuclear sites, have prevented rapid resolution. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in bargaining positions remain possible but face substantial procedural and substantive barriers before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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