As of mid-August 2026, 23 to 25 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection, aligning closely with the market's leading 20–23 range. Primary drivers include extended tenure and age among senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jerry Nadler, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside several pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. Additional factors encompass post-2024 electoral shifts, potential primary pressures in certain districts, and a broader wave of retirements across both parties. With primary filing deadlines approaching in many states, further announcements could expand the total into the 24–27 band, though recent tracking shows limited new Democratic departures in the past month. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed exits and the typical pace of late-cycle decisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20〜23 49.5%
24～27 34%
28～31 18.2%
32〜35 3.6%
$45,018 Vol.
$45,018 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
1%
20〜23
50%
24～27
34%
28～31
11%
32〜35
4%
36～39
<1%
40人以上
1%
20〜23 49.5%
24～27 34%
28～31 18.2%
32〜35 3.6%
$45,018 Vol.
$45,018 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
$17,812 Vol.
1%
20〜23
$9,852 Vol.
50%
24～27
$7,853 Vol.
34%
28～31
$1,930 Vol.
11%
32〜35
$4,533 Vol.
4%
36～39
$1,355 Vol.
<1%
40人以上
$1,683 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 23 to 25 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection, aligning closely with the market's leading 20–23 range. Primary drivers include extended tenure and age among senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jerry Nadler, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside several pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. Additional factors encompass post-2024 electoral shifts, potential primary pressures in certain districts, and a broader wave of retirements across both parties. With primary filing deadlines approaching in many states, further announcements could expand the total into the 24–27 band, though recent tracking shows limited new Democratic departures in the past month. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed exits and the typical pace of late-cycle decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$45,018終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 23 to 25 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection, aligning closely with the market's leading 20–23 range. Primary drivers include extended tenure and age among senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jerry Nadler, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside several pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. Additional factors encompass post-2024 electoral shifts, potential primary pressures in certain districts, and a broader wave of retirements across both parties. With primary filing deadlines approaching in many states, further announcements could expand the total into the 24–27 band, though recent tracking shows limited new Democratic departures in the past month. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed exits and the typical pace of late-cycle decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$45,018終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, 23 to 25 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection, aligning closely with the market's leading 20–23 range. Primary drivers include extended tenure and age among senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jerry Nadler, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside several pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. Additional factors encompass post-2024 electoral shifts, potential primary pressures in certain districts, and a broader wave of retirements across both parties. With primary filing deadlines approaching in many states, further announcements could expand the total into the 24–27 band, though recent tracking shows limited new Democratic departures in the past month. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed exits and the typical pace of late-cycle decisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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