Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月15日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
8月15日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
31°C 33%
30°C 25%
29°C 18%
32°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/15
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
18%
30°C
25%
31°C
33%
32°C
14%
33°C
6%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
2%
31°C 33%
30°C 25%
29°C 18%
32°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/15
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C
$12 Vol.
1%
27°C
$7 Vol.
4%
28°C
$12 Vol.
1%
29°C
$19 Vol.
18%
30°C
$25 Vol.
25%
31°C
$25 Vol.
33%
32°C
$18 Vol.
14%
33°C
$38 Vol.
6%
34°C
$30 Vol.
6%
35°C or higher
$30 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$226終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$226終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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