Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models converge on a peak of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow, with minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime radiative heating. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between those two bins at 37.5 % and 33.5 % implied probability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing of any subtle moisture advection or afternoon boundary-layer mixing that could shave 1 °C off the maximum, as well as small differences in how models handle urban heat-island effects at the official measurement site. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high near 24 °C, so current guidance reflects an anomalous ridge of high pressure; traders are closely watching the next 24-hour model updates ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月15日のミュンヘンの最高気温は？
8月15日のミュンヘンの最高気温は？
35°C 38%
34°C 36%
36°C 12%
33°C 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/15
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
9%
34°C
36%
35°C
38%
36°C
12%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 38%
34°C 36%
36°C 12%
33°C 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/15
29°C or below
$81 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$13 Vol.
1%
32°C
$34 Vol.
3%
33°C
$199 Vol.
9%
34°C
$338 Vol.
36%
35°C
$1,375 Vol.
38%
36°C
$42 Vol.
12%
37°C
$12 Vol.
3%
38°C
$71 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$19 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models converge on a peak of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow, with minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime radiative heating. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between those two bins at 37.5 % and 33.5 % implied probability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing of any subtle moisture advection or afternoon boundary-layer mixing that could shave 1 °C off the maximum, as well as small differences in how models handle urban heat-island effects at the official measurement site. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high near 24 °C, so current guidance reflects an anomalous ridge of high pressure; traders are closely watching the next 24-hour model updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$2,213終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models converge on a peak of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow, with minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime radiative heating. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between those two bins at 37.5 % and 33.5 % implied probability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing of any subtle moisture advection or afternoon boundary-layer mixing that could shave 1 °C off the maximum, as well as small differences in how models handle urban heat-island effects at the official measurement site. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high near 24 °C, so current guidance reflects an anomalous ridge of high pressure; traders are closely watching the next 24-hour model updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,213終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from European and global models converge on a peak of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow, with minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime radiative heating. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between those two bins at 37.5 % and 33.5 % implied probability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing of any subtle moisture advection or afternoon boundary-layer mixing that could shave 1 °C off the maximum, as well as small differences in how models handle urban heat-island effects at the official measurement site. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high near 24 °C, so current guidance reflects an anomalous ridge of high pressure; traders are closely watching the next 24-hour model updates ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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