Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a passing frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms to Chicago on August 13, which has shifted trader sentiment toward cooler-than-normal highs. Seasonal normals near 83°F are tempered by limited insolation and evaporative cooling, producing market-implied odds clustered tightly around 74–77°F. Model disagreements on convective timing, coverage, and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between the top three outcomes, with higher temperatures discounted absent stronger ridging. Updated short-range forecasts and observations tomorrow morning will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月13日のシカゴの最高気温は？
8月13日のシカゴの最高気温は？
76～77°F 30%
74〜75°F 23%
78〜79°F 22%
80〜81°F 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/13
華氏67度以下
3%
68～69°F
1%
70～71°F
6%
72～73°F
6%
74〜75°F
23%
76～77°F
30%
78〜79°F
22%
80〜81°F
9%
82〜83°F
3%
84～85°F
2%
86°F以上
1%
76～77°F 30%
74〜75°F 23%
78〜79°F 22%
80〜81°F 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/13
華氏67度以下
$62 Vol.
3%
68～69°F
$5 Vol.
1%
70～71°F
$42 Vol.
6%
72～73°F
$0 Vol.
6%
74〜75°F
$0 Vol.
23%
76～77°F
$0 Vol.
30%
78〜79°F
$0 Vol.
22%
80〜81°F
$1 Vol.
9%
82〜83°F
$6 Vol.
3%
84～85°F
$53 Vol.
2%
86°F以上
$62 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a passing frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms to Chicago on August 13, which has shifted trader sentiment toward cooler-than-normal highs. Seasonal normals near 83°F are tempered by limited insolation and evaporative cooling, producing market-implied odds clustered tightly around 74–77°F. Model disagreements on convective timing, coverage, and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between the top three outcomes, with higher temperatures discounted absent stronger ridging. Updated short-range forecasts and observations tomorrow morning will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
音量
$231終了日
2026/08/13マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a passing frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms to Chicago on August 13, which has shifted trader sentiment toward cooler-than-normal highs. Seasonal normals near 83°F are tempered by limited insolation and evaporative cooling, producing market-implied odds clustered tightly around 74–77°F. Model disagreements on convective timing, coverage, and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between the top three outcomes, with higher temperatures discounted absent stronger ridging. Updated short-range forecasts and observations tomorrow morning will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$231終了日
2026/08/13マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETRecent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a passing frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms to Chicago on August 13, which has shifted trader sentiment toward cooler-than-normal highs. Seasonal normals near 83°F are tempered by limited insolation and evaporative cooling, producing market-implied odds clustered tightly around 74–77°F. Model disagreements on convective timing, coverage, and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between the top three outcomes, with higher temperatures discounted absent stronger ridging. Updated short-range forecasts and observations tomorrow morning will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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