Trader consensus around 25–26°C for Cape Town’s August 1 maximum reflects substantial ensemble spread in global and regional models despite South African Weather Service guidance pointing to a 20°C high under clear, cool conditions with light winds. Typical August climatology centers on 17–18°C daytime peaks, so current odds embed expectations of a positive anomaly driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced marine layer influence, or enhanced insolation. Key differentiators among the tightly bunched 24–27°C outcomes include forecast adjustments to boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any diurnal warming peaks, with official verification thresholds and measurement station protocols adding further resolution uncertainty as the day progresses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月1日のケープタウンの最高気温は?
25°C 34%
26°C 26%
24°C 22%
27°C 14%
$18,068 Vol.
$18,068 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
7%
24°C
22%
25°C
34%
26°C
26%
27°C
14%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
25°C 34%
26°C 26%
24°C 22%
27°C 14%
$18,068 Vol.
$18,068 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
7%
24°C
22%
25°C
34%
26°C
26%
27°C
14%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus around 25–26°C for Cape Town’s August 1 maximum reflects substantial ensemble spread in global and regional models despite South African Weather Service guidance pointing to a 20°C high under clear, cool conditions with light winds. Typical August climatology centers on 17–18°C daytime peaks, so current odds embed expectations of a positive anomaly driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced marine layer influence, or enhanced insolation. Key differentiators among the tightly bunched 24–27°C outcomes include forecast adjustments to boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any diurnal warming peaks, with official verification thresholds and measurement station protocols adding further resolution uncertainty as the day progresses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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