Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$53,587 Vol.
2026/12/31
60％以上
66%
65％以上
31%
70％以上
17%
75％以上
12%
80%以上
7%
90％以上
4%
$53,587 Vol.
60％以上
$28,525 Vol.
66%
65％以上
$13,582 Vol.
31%
70％以上
$5,265 Vol.
17%
75％以上
$2,857 Vol.
12%
80%以上
$1,151 Vol.
7%
90％以上
$2,206 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$53,587終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET結算ソース
https://agi.safe.ai/リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$53,587終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET結算ソース
https://agi.safe.ai/リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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