**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40～64 52%
65〜89 23%
40未満 21%
90～114 5%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
40未満
21%
40～64
52%
65〜89
23%
90～114
5%
115〜139
1%
140～164
1%
165～189
1%
190～214
1%
215〜239
1%
240以上
1%
40～64 52%
65〜89 23%
40未満 21%
90～114 5%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
40未満
$70 Vol.
21%
40～64
$84 Vol.
52%
65〜89
$52 Vol.
23%
90～114
$70 Vol.
5%
115〜139
$300 Vol.
1%
140～164
$432 Vol.
1%
165～189
$432 Vol.
1%
190～214
$12 Vol.
1%
215〜239
$20 Vol.
1%
240以上
$120 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
音量
$1,591終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$1,591終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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