California’s heavily Democratic electorate and term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom’s departure have positioned Democrat Xavier Becerra as the structural favorite against Republican Steve Hilton in the November 2026 general election, yet trader pricing on victory margins remains dispersed. Voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, energy prices, and one-party governance has sustained Hilton’s messaging on tax cuts, deregulation, and tougher crime policies, backed by a Trump endorsement. Becerra emphasizes continuity on affordability measures, healthcare access, and resistance to federal policy shifts while drawing endorsements from party leaders. Recent polling averages show Becerra ahead by double digits, but uncertainty over turnout among independents and key voting blocs in coastal versus inland areas keeps margin outcomes spread across multiple buckets. Scheduled debates or late shifts in economic sentiment could widen or narrow the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ヒルトンが勝利 39%
ベセラ 35〜40％ 37%
ベセラ 40％以上 28%
ベセラ 10〜15％ 20%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
ベセラ 40％以上
28%
ベセラ 35〜40％
37%
ベセラ 30〜35%
19%
ベセラ 25-30%
8%
ベセラ 20-25%
17%
ベセラ 15-20%
15%
ベセラ 10〜15％
20%
ベセラ 0〜10％
18%
ヒルトンが勝利
39%
ヒルトンが勝利 39%
ベセラ 35〜40％ 37%
ベセラ 40％以上 28%
ベセラ 10〜15％ 20%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
ベセラ 40％以上
$56 Vol.
28%
ベセラ 35〜40％
$41 Vol.
37%
ベセラ 30〜35%
$32 Vol.
19%
ベセラ 25-30%
$32 Vol.
8%
ベセラ 20-25%
$41 Vol.
17%
ベセラ 15-20%
$51 Vol.
15%
ベセラ 10〜15％
$46 Vol.
20%
ベセラ 0〜10％
$36 Vol.
18%
ヒルトンが勝利
$41 Vol.
39%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California’s heavily Democratic electorate and term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom’s departure have positioned Democrat Xavier Becerra as the structural favorite against Republican Steve Hilton in the November 2026 general election, yet trader pricing on victory margins remains dispersed. Voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, energy prices, and one-party governance has sustained Hilton’s messaging on tax cuts, deregulation, and tougher crime policies, backed by a Trump endorsement. Becerra emphasizes continuity on affordability measures, healthcare access, and resistance to federal policy shifts while drawing endorsements from party leaders. Recent polling averages show Becerra ahead by double digits, but uncertainty over turnout among independents and key voting blocs in coastal versus inland areas keeps margin outcomes spread across multiple buckets. Scheduled debates or late shifts in economic sentiment could widen or narrow the gap before Election Day.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
音量
$376終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California’s heavily Democratic electorate and term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom’s departure have positioned Democrat Xavier Becerra as the structural favorite against Republican Steve Hilton in the November 2026 general election, yet trader pricing on victory margins remains dispersed. Voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, energy prices, and one-party governance has sustained Hilton’s messaging on tax cuts, deregulation, and tougher crime policies, backed by a Trump endorsement. Becerra emphasizes continuity on affordability measures, healthcare access, and resistance to federal policy shifts while drawing endorsements from party leaders. Recent polling averages show Becerra ahead by double digits, but uncertainty over turnout among independents and key voting blocs in coastal versus inland areas keeps margin outcomes spread across multiple buckets. Scheduled debates or late shifts in economic sentiment could widen or narrow the gap before Election Day.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$376終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...California’s heavily Democratic electorate and term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom’s departure have positioned Democrat Xavier Becerra as the structural favorite against Republican Steve Hilton in the November 2026 general election, yet trader pricing on victory margins remains dispersed. Voter frustration with housing costs, homelessness, energy prices, and one-party governance has sustained Hilton’s messaging on tax cuts, deregulation, and tougher crime policies, backed by a Trump endorsement. Becerra emphasizes continuity on affordability measures, healthcare access, and resistance to federal policy shifts while drawing endorsements from party leaders. Recent polling averages show Becerra ahead by double digits, but uncertainty over turnout among independents and key voting blocs in coastal versus inland areas keeps margin outcomes spread across multiple buckets. Scheduled debates or late shifts in economic sentiment could widen or narrow the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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