**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di novembre?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di novembre?
Anthropic 59%
Z.ai 39%
MiniMax 26%
Google 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
Anthropic
59%
Z.ai
39%
MiniMax
26%
16%
DeepSeek
25%
Alibaba
24%
Meta
23%
OpenAI
22%
SpaceXAI
22%
Amazon
22%
Xiaomi
21%
Tencent
21%
Meituan
20%
Moonshot
14%
Mistral
12%
Baidu
12%
Microsoft
12%
StepFun
9%
Nvidia
8%
Thinky
7%
ByteDance
10%
Anthropic 59%
Z.ai 39%
MiniMax 26%
Google 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
Anthropic
$70 Vol.
59%
Z.ai
$50 Vol.
39%
MiniMax
$50 Vol.
26%
$70 Vol.
16%
DeepSeek
$50 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$50 Vol.
24%
Meta
$50 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$50 Vol.
22%
SpaceXAI
$50 Vol.
22%
Amazon
$50 Vol.
22%
Xiaomi
$50 Vol.
21%
Tencent
$50 Vol.
21%
Meituan
$50 Vol.
20%
Moonshot
$50 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$50 Vol.
12%
Baidu
$50 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$50 Vol.
12%
StepFun
$50 Vol.
9%
Nvidia
$50 Vol.
8%
Thinky
$50 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$62 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,095Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,095Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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