The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il modello di IA numero1 alla fine di novembre? (Controllo stile attivato)
Quale azienda ha il modello di IA numero1 alla fine di novembre? (Controllo stile attivato)
Alibaba 22%
StepFun 21%
Meituan 20%
Moonshot 19%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
Alibaba
22%
StepFun
21%
Meituan
20%
Moonshot
19%
DeepSeek
18%
Microsoft
17%
Thinky
16%
Meta
15%
15%
Mistral
15%
Nvidia
15%
Tencent
15%
OpenAI
14%
Z.ai
14%
ByteDance
14%
Baidu
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Anthropic
14%
SpaceXAI
13%
MiniMax
12%
Amazon
12%
Alibaba 22%
StepFun 21%
Meituan 20%
Moonshot 19%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
22%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
21%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
20%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
19%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
18%
Microsoft
$29 Vol.
17%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
16%
Meta
$0 Vol.
15%
$0 Vol.
15%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
15%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
15%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
13%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
12%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$29Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$29Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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