Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around the third-best AI agent lab by end of September, with multiple candidates clustered near 50% implied probability and no dominant leader. Intense competition among established players and emerging labs centers on demonstrated strengths in long-horizon planning, tool-use reliability, multi-agent orchestration, and real-world deployment metrics rather than raw model scale alone. Recent releases and internal capability benchmarks have kept sentiment fluid, while factors such as talent acquisition, compute access, and safety frameworks further differentiate contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and new agent evaluations could quickly shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerzo miglior AI Agent Lab alla fine di settembre?
Terzo miglior AI Agent Lab alla fine di settembre?
Z.ai 12%
OpenAI 11%
Amazon 11%
Mistral 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Z.ai
12%
OpenAI
11%
Amazon
11%
Mistral
11%
Anthropic
10%
Baidu
10%
ByteDance
9%
Microsoft
9%
Meta
8%
8%
Meituan
8%
Alibaba
8%
Nvidia
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Xiaomi
4%
MiniMax
4%
DeepSeek
3%
Moonshot
15%
Z.ai 12%
OpenAI 11%
Amazon 11%
Mistral 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Z.ai
$20 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$20 Vol.
11%
Amazon
$20 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$20 Vol.
11%
Anthropic
$20 Vol.
10%
Baidu
$20 Vol.
10%
ByteDance
$20 Vol.
9%
Microsoft
$20 Vol.
9%
Meta
$20 Vol.
8%
$20 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$20 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$20 Vol.
8%
Nvidia
$20 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$20 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$25 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$20 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$59 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around the third-best AI agent lab by end of September, with multiple candidates clustered near 50% implied probability and no dominant leader. Intense competition among established players and emerging labs centers on demonstrated strengths in long-horizon planning, tool-use reliability, multi-agent orchestration, and real-world deployment metrics rather than raw model scale alone. Recent releases and internal capability benchmarks have kept sentiment fluid, while factors such as talent acquisition, compute access, and safety frameworks further differentiate contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and new agent evaluations could quickly shift positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$407Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around the third-best AI agent lab by end of September, with multiple candidates clustered near 50% implied probability and no dominant leader. Intense competition among established players and emerging labs centers on demonstrated strengths in long-horizon planning, tool-use reliability, multi-agent orchestration, and real-world deployment metrics rather than raw model scale alone. Recent releases and internal capability benchmarks have kept sentiment fluid, while factors such as talent acquisition, compute access, and safety frameworks further differentiate contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and new agent evaluations could quickly shift positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$407Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows high uncertainty around the third-best AI agent lab by end of September, with multiple candidates clustered near 50% implied probability and no dominant leader. Intense competition among established players and emerging labs centers on demonstrated strengths in long-horizon planning, tool-use reliability, multi-agent orchestration, and real-world deployment metrics rather than raw model scale alone. Recent releases and internal capability benchmarks have kept sentiment fluid, while factors such as talent acquisition, compute access, and safety frameworks further differentiate contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and new agent evaluations could quickly shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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