The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted against reelection following her brief gubernatorial bid, favors Republican Anthony Constantino in trader pricing due to the district’s consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary and holds endorsements from Stefanik and Donald Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien leads his party’s ticket. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, though a recent SurveyUSA poll narrowed the gap to a statistical tie. Traders appear to weigh the structural advantages and candidate endorsements more heavily than the single poll result when assessing the November general election outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-21
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-21
$56,255 Vol.
$56,255 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
72%
Partito Democratico
24%
$56,255 Vol.
$56,255 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$26,804 Vol.
72%
Partito Democratico
$29,451 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted against reelection following her brief gubernatorial bid, favors Republican Anthony Constantino in trader pricing due to the district’s consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary and holds endorsements from Stefanik and Donald Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien leads his party’s ticket. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, though a recent SurveyUSA poll narrowed the gap to a statistical tie. Traders appear to weigh the structural advantages and candidate endorsements more heavily than the single poll result when assessing the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$56,255Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted against reelection following her brief gubernatorial bid, favors Republican Anthony Constantino in trader pricing due to the district’s consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary and holds endorsements from Stefanik and Donald Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien leads his party’s ticket. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, though a recent SurveyUSA poll narrowed the gap to a statistical tie. Traders appear to weigh the structural advantages and candidate endorsements more heavily than the single poll result when assessing the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$56,255Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted against reelection following her brief gubernatorial bid, favors Republican Anthony Constantino in trader pricing due to the district’s consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary and holds endorsements from Stefanik and Donald Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien leads his party’s ticket. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, though a recent SurveyUSA poll narrowed the gap to a statistical tie. Traders appear to weigh the structural advantages and candidate endorsements more heavily than the single poll result when assessing the November general election outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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