Micah Lasher's narrow lead in early vote tallies from New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23 has anchored trader consensus around a sub-5% margin of victory. With roughly 85% of expected ballots counted at the time of initial projections, Lasher held about 39% to Alex Bores' 35%, while other contenders including Jack Schlossberg trailed further behind in the crowded field. This positioning reflects the race's dynamics among Manhattan-based assembly members and high-profile challengers, shaped by substantial outside spending and policy contrasts on issues such as artificial intelligence regulation. Official certification, remaining absentee and provisional ballots, or any post-election challenges could still widen the final gap, though current counts continue to support the tight outcome reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLasher <5% 98.0%
Lasher 5–10% 1.6%
Lasher oltre il 15% <1%
Lasher 10–15% <1%
$94,975 Vol.
$94,975 Vol.
23 giu 2026
Lasher oltre il 15%
<1%
Lasher 10–15%
<1%
Lasher 5–10%
2%
Lasher <5%
98%
Lasher <5% 98.0%
Lasher 5–10% 1.6%
Lasher oltre il 15% <1%
Lasher 10–15% <1%
$94,975 Vol.
$94,975 Vol.
23 giu 2026
Lasher oltre il 15%
$4,681 Vol.
<1%
Lasher 10–15%
$4,346 Vol.
<1%
Lasher 5–10%
$5,755 Vol.
2%
Lasher <5%
$14,577 Vol.
98%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Micah Lasher's narrow lead in early vote tallies from New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23 has anchored trader consensus around a sub-5% margin of victory. With roughly 85% of expected ballots counted at the time of initial projections, Lasher held about 39% to Alex Bores' 35%, while other contenders including Jack Schlossberg trailed further behind in the crowded field. This positioning reflects the race's dynamics among Manhattan-based assembly members and high-profile challengers, shaped by substantial outside spending and policy contrasts on issues such as artificial intelligence regulation. Official certification, remaining absentee and provisional ballots, or any post-election challenges could still widen the final gap, though current counts continue to support the tight outcome reflected in market pricing.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$94,975Data di fine
24 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Micah Lasher's narrow lead in early vote tallies from New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23 has anchored trader consensus around a sub-5% margin of victory. With roughly 85% of expected ballots counted at the time of initial projections, Lasher held about 39% to Alex Bores' 35%, while other contenders including Jack Schlossberg trailed further behind in the crowded field. This positioning reflects the race's dynamics among Manhattan-based assembly members and high-profile challengers, shaped by substantial outside spending and policy contrasts on issues such as artificial intelligence regulation. Official certification, remaining absentee and provisional ballots, or any post-election challenges could still widen the final gap, though current counts continue to support the tight outcome reflected in market pricing.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$94,975Data di fine
24 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Micah Lasher's narrow lead in early vote tallies from New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23 has anchored trader consensus around a sub-5% margin of victory. With roughly 85% of expected ballots counted at the time of initial projections, Lasher held about 39% to Alex Bores' 35%, while other contenders including Jack Schlossberg trailed further behind in the crowded field. This positioning reflects the race's dynamics among Manhattan-based assembly members and high-profile challengers, shaped by substantial outside spending and policy contrasts on issues such as artificial intelligence regulation. Official certification, remaining absentee and provisional ballots, or any post-election challenges could still widen the final gap, though current counts continue to support the tight outcome reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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