Darializa Avila Chevalier's narrow victory over longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary produced a final margin under 5 percentage points, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the overwhelming probability assigned to that outcome. The race featured strong grassroots mobilization by the challenger, a Columbia graduate student and community organizer backed by progressive groups, emphasizing rent relief and immigrant rights in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx. Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, retained strength in Bronx precincts while Avila Chevalier dominated Manhattan areas, resulting in vote totals of roughly 49% to 46% amid low single-digit shares for minor candidates. Official certification and any remaining procedural reviews represent the primary variables that could still affect the exact margin recorded for market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAvila Chevalier <5% 98.2%
Avila Chevalier oltre il 10% 1.7%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 1.1%
Altro <1%
$89,926 Vol.
$89,926 Vol.
23 giu 2026
Avila Chevalier oltre il 10%
2%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
1%
Avila Chevalier <5%
98%
Altro
<1%
Avila Chevalier <5% 98.2%
Avila Chevalier oltre il 10% 1.7%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 1.1%
Altro <1%
$89,926 Vol.
$89,926 Vol.
23 giu 2026
Avila Chevalier oltre il 10%
$5,981 Vol.
2%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
$7,521 Vol.
1%
Avila Chevalier <5%
$21,959 Vol.
98%
Altro
$2,194 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier's narrow victory over longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary produced a final margin under 5 percentage points, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the overwhelming probability assigned to that outcome. The race featured strong grassroots mobilization by the challenger, a Columbia graduate student and community organizer backed by progressive groups, emphasizing rent relief and immigrant rights in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx. Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, retained strength in Bronx precincts while Avila Chevalier dominated Manhattan areas, resulting in vote totals of roughly 49% to 46% amid low single-digit shares for minor candidates. Official certification and any remaining procedural reviews represent the primary variables that could still affect the exact margin recorded for market resolution.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
Volume
$89,926Data di fine
23 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier's narrow victory over longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary produced a final margin under 5 percentage points, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the overwhelming probability assigned to that outcome. The race featured strong grassroots mobilization by the challenger, a Columbia graduate student and community organizer backed by progressive groups, emphasizing rent relief and immigrant rights in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx. Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, retained strength in Bronx precincts while Avila Chevalier dominated Manhattan areas, resulting in vote totals of roughly 49% to 46% amid low single-digit shares for minor candidates. Official certification and any remaining procedural reviews represent the primary variables that could still affect the exact margin recorded for market resolution.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$89,926Data di fine
23 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Darializa Avila Chevalier's narrow victory over longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary produced a final margin under 5 percentage points, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the overwhelming probability assigned to that outcome. The race featured strong grassroots mobilization by the challenger, a Columbia graduate student and community organizer backed by progressive groups, emphasizing rent relief and immigrant rights in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx. Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, retained strength in Bronx precincts while Avila Chevalier dominated Manhattan areas, resulting in vote totals of roughly 49% to 46% amid low single-digit shares for minor candidates. Official certification and any remaining procedural reviews represent the primary variables that could still affect the exact margin recorded for market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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