**Spain’s minority PSOE-led government under Pedro Sánchez faces ongoing pressure from corruption investigations involving party figures and allies, yet no formal motion of no confidence has advanced to a vote.** A non-binding June 2026 congressional resolution (passed 177-171) called for Sánchez’s resignation and urged a confidence vote, but the opposition—primarily the PP—has refrained from tabling a binding motion because it lacks the 176-vote absolute majority required in the 350-seat Congress. Sánchez’s coalition depends on case-by-case support from Catalan and Basque nationalist parties, whose priorities limit alignment with the PP or Vox on ousting the government. Recent developments show Sánchez publicly committing to serve until the scheduled 2027 election, while the government continues operations amid budget extensions and policy initiatives. Smaller parties have signaled reluctance to back a no-confidence effort that could empower the far right. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these structural barriers: probabilities remain low for a vote occurring by near-term deadlines, with longer windows (such as year-end) priced modestly higher due to the possibility of shifting alliances or escalating scandals. Key variables include parliamentary arithmetic, any new judicial developments, and whether opposition parties can coordinate sufficient cross-bench support before the next general election cycle.