Spain’s minority PSOE-led government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly signaled it will serve out the full legislative term, with the next scheduled general election required no later than August 2027. Coalition partners have not withdrawn support at levels that would block budgets or enable a successful no-confidence motion, while the opposition Popular Party and Vox lack the seats to form an alternative administration. Recent regional snap votes in Extremadura and Aragón, driven by local budget shortfalls, delivered gains for the PP and highlighted a broader rightward shift but produced no national spillover or parliamentary crisis. Sánchez has explicitly ruled out an early contest in 2026, directing attention instead toward possible timing in early 2027. Traders therefore assign low probability to dissolution before year-end, reflecting the absence of immediate triggers and the prime minister’s constitutional authority to set the calendar.