Traders assign a 96.3% probability that Lai Ching-te remains Taiwan's president through December 31, 2026, reflecting the fixed four-year term structure established after his 2024 inauguration and the absence of scheduled elections or active constitutional removal proceedings. The legislature holds opposition majorities but has shown no viable path to impeachment or forced resignation amid routine management of cross-strait relations. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete terms absent major health events or scandals. The short window to year-end further reduces the scope for unexpected shifts, though low-probability catalysts such as sudden incapacity, verified corruption findings triggering legislative action, or acute diplomatic crises could still alter outcomes before resolution.