Erdoğan's current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with the next scheduled election set for May 2028 and no early vote or snap parliamentary action underway as of mid-2026. Recent court rulings have further consolidated his position by annulling opposition leadership contests and disqualifying or detaining prominent rivals such as Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, leaving the main opposition CHP fragmented and less able to force political change. Traders price "No" near 95 percent because these institutional controls, combined with Erdoğan's command of the ruling AKP and security apparatus, create few realistic removal paths before year-end 2026. Only low-probability shocks—sudden health incapacity, an unforeseen internal party crisis, or an abrupt decision to call early elections—could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.