Current forecasts from meteorological agencies show a daily high near 81°F for Chicago on July 31, 2026, supported by persistent cloud cover, moderating onshore flow from Lake Michigan, and below-normal conditions that limit peak solar heating. Model consensus and observational data align closely with this range, well below the 84°F climatological normal, explaining the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. Traders assess verified measurements at Midway Airport as the resolution source. A late-day clearing trend or stronger southerly advection could realistically shift readings into the low 80s, though latest guidance assigns these scenarios low probability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Chicago il 31 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Chicago il 31 luglio?
80-81°F 100.0%
77°F o inferiore <1%
78-79°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$59,832 Vol.
$59,832 Vol.
31 lug 2026
77°F o inferiore
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
100%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F o superiore
<1%
80-81°F 100.0%
77°F o inferiore <1%
78-79°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$59,832 Vol.
$59,832 Vol.
31 lug 2026
77°F o inferiore
$15,796 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$3,247 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$7,972 Vol.
100%
82-83°F
$5,261 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$5,485 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$10,692 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$6,001 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$3,119 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$606 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$926 Vol.
<1%
96°F o superiore
$726 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies show a daily high near 81°F for Chicago on July 31, 2026, supported by persistent cloud cover, moderating onshore flow from Lake Michigan, and below-normal conditions that limit peak solar heating. Model consensus and observational data align closely with this range, well below the 84°F climatological normal, explaining the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. Traders assess verified measurements at Midway Airport as the resolution source. A late-day clearing trend or stronger southerly advection could realistically shift readings into the low 80s, though latest guidance assigns these scenarios low probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volume
$59,832Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies show a daily high near 81°F for Chicago on July 31, 2026, supported by persistent cloud cover, moderating onshore flow from Lake Michigan, and below-normal conditions that limit peak solar heating. Model consensus and observational data align closely with this range, well below the 84°F climatological normal, explaining the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. Traders assess verified measurements at Midway Airport as the resolution source. A late-day clearing trend or stronger southerly advection could realistically shift readings into the low 80s, though latest guidance assigns these scenarios low probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$59,832Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies show a daily high near 81°F for Chicago on July 31, 2026, supported by persistent cloud cover, moderating onshore flow from Lake Michigan, and below-normal conditions that limit peak solar heating. Model consensus and observational data align closely with this range, well below the 84°F climatological normal, explaining the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. Traders assess verified measurements at Midway Airport as the resolution source. A late-day clearing trend or stronger southerly advection could realistically shift readings into the low 80s, though latest guidance assigns these scenarios low probability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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