**US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified through mid-2026, with airstrikes targeting coastal defenses, missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure on islands such as Greater Tunb, Kharg, Qeshm, and Abu Musa to degrade IRGC capabilities threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.** Farsi Island, a small, restricted IRGC Navy outpost used historically for maritime interdiction and monitoring, has not been reported as struck or subject to seizure in these campaigns. Trader pricing reflects the absence of confirmed ground operations, amphibious actions, or shifts in primary Iranian governmental or military authority over the island, alongside Iran's repeated assertions that control of the strait does not depend solely on specific coastal sites. Low probabilities for near-term resolution dates (such as late August or September 2026) align with the emphasis on precision strikes over occupation and the lack of verified escalations aimed specifically at Farsi. Future market movement would require official confirmation of territorial control changes via statements or reporting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Farsi non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Farsi non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$174,582 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 agosto
<1%
$174,582 Vol.
31 agosto
$165,689 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified through mid-2026, with airstrikes targeting coastal defenses, missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure on islands such as Greater Tunb, Kharg, Qeshm, and Abu Musa to degrade IRGC capabilities threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.** Farsi Island, a small, restricted IRGC Navy outpost used historically for maritime interdiction and monitoring, has not been reported as struck or subject to seizure in these campaigns. Trader pricing reflects the absence of confirmed ground operations, amphibious actions, or shifts in primary Iranian governmental or military authority over the island, alongside Iran's repeated assertions that control of the strait does not depend solely on specific coastal sites. Low probabilities for near-term resolution dates (such as late August or September 2026) align with the emphasis on precision strikes over occupation and the lack of verified escalations aimed specifically at Farsi. Future market movement would require official confirmation of territorial control changes via statements or reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$174,582Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified through mid-2026, with airstrikes targeting coastal defenses, missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure on islands such as Greater Tunb, Kharg, Qeshm, and Abu Musa to degrade IRGC capabilities threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.** Farsi Island, a small, restricted IRGC Navy outpost used historically for maritime interdiction and monitoring, has not been reported as struck or subject to seizure in these campaigns. Trader pricing reflects the absence of confirmed ground operations, amphibious actions, or shifts in primary Iranian governmental or military authority over the island, alongside Iran's repeated assertions that control of the strait does not depend solely on specific coastal sites. Low probabilities for near-term resolution dates (such as late August or September 2026) align with the emphasis on precision strikes over occupation and the lack of verified escalations aimed specifically at Farsi. Future market movement would require official confirmation of territorial control changes via statements or reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$174,582Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified through mid-2026, with airstrikes targeting coastal defenses, missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure on islands such as Greater Tunb, Kharg, Qeshm, and Abu Musa to degrade IRGC capabilities threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.** Farsi Island, a small, restricted IRGC Navy outpost used historically for maritime interdiction and monitoring, has not been reported as struck or subject to seizure in these campaigns. Trader pricing reflects the absence of confirmed ground operations, amphibious actions, or shifts in primary Iranian governmental or military authority over the island, alongside Iran's repeated assertions that control of the strait does not depend solely on specific coastal sites. Low probabilities for near-term resolution dates (such as late August or September 2026) align with the emphasis on precision strikes over occupation and the lack of verified escalations aimed specifically at Farsi. Future market movement would require official confirmation of territorial control changes via statements or reporting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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