Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the Atlantic main development region, form the dominant driver behind the 81% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season overall, with only 3–6 hurricanes expected basin-wide and well-below-average U.S. landfall odds. As of July 31, just two weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 2.6—72% below the long-term average—and no active systems exist. Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent shear continue to inhibit organization, consistent with historical El Niño suppression patterns during the August–September peak. Upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and early-August monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any rapid shifts in steering or intensification potential.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the Atlantic main development region, form the dominant driver behind the 81% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season overall, with only 3–6 hurricanes expected basin-wide and well-below-average U.S. landfall odds. As of July 31, just two weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 2.6—72% below the long-term average—and no active systems exist. Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent shear continue to inhibit organization, consistent with historical El Niño suppression patterns during the August–September peak. Upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and early-August monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any rapid shifts in steering or intensification potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$596Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the Atlantic main development region, form the dominant driver behind the 81% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season overall, with only 3–6 hurricanes expected basin-wide and well-below-average U.S. landfall odds. As of July 31, just two weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 2.6—72% below the long-term average—and no active systems exist. Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent shear continue to inhibit organization, consistent with historical El Niño suppression patterns during the August–September peak. Upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and early-August monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any rapid shifts in steering or intensification potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Volume
$596Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the Atlantic main development region, form the dominant driver behind the 81% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season overall, with only 3–6 hurricanes expected basin-wide and well-below-average U.S. landfall odds. As of July 31, just two weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 2.6—72% below the long-term average—and no active systems exist. Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent shear continue to inhibit organization, consistent with historical El Niño suppression patterns during the August–September peak. Upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and early-August monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any rapid shifts in steering or intensification potential.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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