Market-implied odds currently favor a 27°C peak as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 2, reflecting the latest numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and GFS. These runs indicate a typical early-August Mediterranean regime dominated by high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit daytime heating to the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius. Historical climatology places the average daily maximum near 28–29°C, but recent model guidance shows modest cooling relative to seasonal norms due to slightly enhanced onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh the balance between this guidance and the small but non-zero chance of localized warming under prolonged sunshine, with final resolution depending on official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 2?
27°C 50%
28°C 28%
26°C 12%
29°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Aug 2, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
12%
27°C
50%
28°C
28%
29°C
8%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 50%
28°C 28%
26°C 12%
29°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Aug 2, 2026
23°C or below
$269 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$373 Vol.
1%
25°C
$157 Vol.
2%
26°C
$408 Vol.
12%
27°C
$790 Vol.
50%
28°C
$742 Vol.
28%
29°C
$403 Vol.
8%
30°C
$806 Vol.
4%
31°C
$164 Vol.
2%
32°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$184 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds currently favor a 27°C peak as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 2, reflecting the latest numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and GFS. These runs indicate a typical early-August Mediterranean regime dominated by high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit daytime heating to the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius. Historical climatology places the average daily maximum near 28–29°C, but recent model guidance shows modest cooling relative to seasonal norms due to slightly enhanced onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh the balance between this guidance and the small but non-zero chance of localized warming under prolonged sunshine, with final resolution depending on official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,467Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds currently favor a 27°C peak as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 2, reflecting the latest numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and GFS. These runs indicate a typical early-August Mediterranean regime dominated by high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit daytime heating to the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius. Historical climatology places the average daily maximum near 28–29°C, but recent model guidance shows modest cooling relative to seasonal norms due to slightly enhanced onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh the balance between this guidance and the small but non-zero chance of localized warming under prolonged sunshine, with final resolution depending on official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,467Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds currently favor a 27°C peak as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 2, reflecting the latest numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and GFS. These runs indicate a typical early-August Mediterranean regime dominated by high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit daytime heating to the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius. Historical climatology places the average daily maximum near 28–29°C, but recent model guidance shows modest cooling relative to seasonal norms due to slightly enhanced onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh the balance between this guidance and the small but non-zero chance of localized warming under prolonged sunshine, with final resolution depending on official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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