Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C under typical Mediterranean conditions. Stable high-pressure systems and moderate sea-surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara have limited intensification potential, keeping projected maxima within a narrow 26–28°C band. Trader consensus, reflected in the 71% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates this model agreement and historical variability of ±2°C around the mean, while lower odds for 28°C or higher account for possible minor warming from afternoon insolation before any evening cooling sets in. Updated observational data from local meteorological stations will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 1?
27°C 71%
26°C 26%
28°C 4%
25°C 2%
BARU
$12,856 Vol.
BARU
$12,856 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
26%
27°C
71%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 71%
26°C 26%
28°C 4%
25°C 2%
BARU
$12,856 Vol.
BARU
$12,856 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
$234 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$549 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$537 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$702 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,900 Vol.
26%
27°C
$4,450 Vol.
71%
28°C
$2,459 Vol.
4%
29°C
$905 Vol.
2%
30°C
$365 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$518 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$238 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C under typical Mediterranean conditions. Stable high-pressure systems and moderate sea-surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara have limited intensification potential, keeping projected maxima within a narrow 26–28°C band. Trader consensus, reflected in the 71% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates this model agreement and historical variability of ±2°C around the mean, while lower odds for 28°C or higher account for possible minor warming from afternoon insolation before any evening cooling sets in. Updated observational data from local meteorological stations will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$12,856Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C under typical Mediterranean conditions. Stable high-pressure systems and moderate sea-surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara have limited intensification potential, keeping projected maxima within a narrow 26–28°C band. Trader consensus, reflected in the 71% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates this model agreement and historical variability of ±2°C around the mean, while lower odds for 28°C or higher account for possible minor warming from afternoon insolation before any evening cooling sets in. Updated observational data from local meteorological stations will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,856Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C under typical Mediterranean conditions. Stable high-pressure systems and moderate sea-surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara have limited intensification potential, keeping projected maxima within a narrow 26–28°C band. Trader consensus, reflected in the 71% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates this model agreement and historical variability of ±2°C around the mean, while lower odds for 28°C or higher account for possible minor warming from afternoon insolation before any evening cooling sets in. Updated observational data from local meteorological stations will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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