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icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Teknologi·Bisnis

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Teknologi·Bisnis

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$142,666 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$142,666 Vol.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$27,617 Vol.

31%

Google

$18,555 Vol.

23%

xAI

$9,098 Vol.

13%

Alibaba

$3,589 Vol.

12%

Z.ai

$5,381 Vol.

11%

Meta

$15,798 Vol.

11%

Moonshot

$9,997 Vol.

9%

ByteDance

$2,936 Vol.

8%

Baidu

$1,981 Vol.

7%

DeepSeek

$23,571 Vol.

6%

Microsoft

$5,191 Vol.

5%

Amazon

$5,156 Vol.

3%

Mistral

$10,316 Vol.

3%

Meituan

$3,480 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads most independent AI leaderboards with its September 1 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, posting top scores on composites like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMArena Elo ratings through superior reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks. OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra has narrowed the gap on select metrics such as coding agents and cybersecurity, though it trails in several verified evaluations. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, both released in early September, show strength in price-performance and specific coding tasks, while xAI’s Grok 4.6 remains competitive on value. With xAI previewing Grok 4.7 for mid-September and further iterations expected from all labs before year-end, trader sentiment hinges on whether Anthropic sustains its edge or if rapid releases from OpenAI, Google, or Meta shift the frontier by December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$142,666
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads most independent AI leaderboards with its September 1 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, posting top scores on composites like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMArena Elo ratings through superior reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks. OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra has narrowed the gap on select metrics such as coding agents and cybersecurity, though it trails in several verified evaluations. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, both released in early September, show strength in price-performance and specific coding tasks, while xAI’s Grok 4.6 remains competitive on value. With xAI previewing Grok 4.7 for mid-September and further iterations expected from all labs before year-end, trader sentiment hinges on whether Anthropic sustains its edge or if rapid releases from OpenAI, Google, or Meta shift the frontier by December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$142,666
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

icon for Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?

95%
icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

64%
icon for Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

84%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 14 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "OpenAI" di 31%, diikuti oleh "Google" di 23%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 31¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 31% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" telah menghasilkan $142.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?," jelajahi 14 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" adalah "OpenAI" di 31%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 31% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Google" di 23%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.