The market-implied odds place an 83.5% probability on no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, reflecting current top scores hovering below 1400 and slower-than-expected gains from recent large language model releases. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 9.5% due to consistent Claude iterations and strong benchmark positioning, while OpenAI trails at 6% amid competitive pressure from rivals. Traders appear to factor in typical scaling timelines, hardware constraints, and the risk of capability plateaus when assessing whether any lab can close the gap before year-end. Upcoming model updates or major training runs could shift sentiment, though historical release patterns suggest limited likelihood of the required leap in the remaining months.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNone in 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.4%
$122,904 Vol.
$122,904 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
84%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
6%
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.4%
$122,904 Vol.
$122,904 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$26,000 Vol.
84%
Anthropic
$17,412 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$14,673 Vol.
6%
$11,499 Vol.
1%
xAI
$9,350 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,416 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market-implied odds place an 83.5% probability on no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, reflecting current top scores hovering below 1400 and slower-than-expected gains from recent large language model releases. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 9.5% due to consistent Claude iterations and strong benchmark positioning, while OpenAI trails at 6% amid competitive pressure from rivals. Traders appear to factor in typical scaling timelines, hardware constraints, and the risk of capability plateaus when assessing whether any lab can close the gap before year-end. Upcoming model updates or major training runs could shift sentiment, though historical release patterns suggest limited likelihood of the required leap in the remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$122,904Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market-implied odds place an 83.5% probability on no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, reflecting current top scores hovering below 1400 and slower-than-expected gains from recent large language model releases. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 9.5% due to consistent Claude iterations and strong benchmark positioning, while OpenAI trails at 6% amid competitive pressure from rivals. Traders appear to factor in typical scaling timelines, hardware constraints, and the risk of capability plateaus when assessing whether any lab can close the gap before year-end. Upcoming model updates or major training runs could shift sentiment, though historical release patterns suggest limited likelihood of the required leap in the remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$122,904Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied odds place an 83.5% probability on no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, reflecting current top scores hovering below 1400 and slower-than-expected gains from recent large language model releases. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 9.5% due to consistent Claude iterations and strong benchmark positioning, while OpenAI trails at 6% amid competitive pressure from rivals. Traders appear to factor in typical scaling timelines, hardware constraints, and the risk of capability plateaus when assessing whether any lab can close the gap before year-end. Upcoming model updates or major training runs could shift sentiment, though historical release patterns suggest limited likelihood of the required leap in the remaining months.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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