Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 38%
OpenAI 21.6%
Anthropic 13.3%
Meta 4.7%
$79,046 Vol.
$79,046 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
38%
OpenAI
22%
Anthropic
13%
Meta
5%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 38%
OpenAI 21.6%
Anthropic 13.3%
Meta 4.7%
$79,046 Vol.
$79,046 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$19,318 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$6,248 Vol.
22%
Anthropic
$4,509 Vol.
13%
Meta
$7,825 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$14,169 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,377 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,990 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,988 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$2,105 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,680 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,425 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$79,046Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$79,046Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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