Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its approximately 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium underground and rendering active enrichment inoperable. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding with the United States formalized a nuclear status quo pending final negotiations, with commitments to IAEA-supervised down-blending and resumed inspections, though access to bombed sites remains restricted as of early September 2026 reports. Ongoing diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and the absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader expectations against a test before 2027. Shifts could still occur if talks collapse, material is extracted undetected, or internal debates over nuclear posture accelerate.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% peluang
$251,689 Vol.
$251,689 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$251,689 Vol.
$251,689 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its approximately 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium underground and rendering active enrichment inoperable. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding with the United States formalized a nuclear status quo pending final negotiations, with commitments to IAEA-supervised down-blending and resumed inspections, though access to bombed sites remains restricted as of early September 2026 reports. Ongoing diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and the absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader expectations against a test before 2027. Shifts could still occur if talks collapse, material is extracted undetected, or internal debates over nuclear posture accelerate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,689Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its approximately 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium underground and rendering active enrichment inoperable. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding with the United States formalized a nuclear status quo pending final negotiations, with commitments to IAEA-supervised down-blending and resumed inspections, though access to bombed sites remains restricted as of early September 2026 reports. Ongoing diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and the absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader expectations against a test before 2027. Shifts could still occur if talks collapse, material is extracted undetected, or internal debates over nuclear posture accelerate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,689Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its approximately 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium underground and rendering active enrichment inoperable. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding with the United States formalized a nuclear status quo pending final negotiations, with commitments to IAEA-supervised down-blending and resumed inspections, though access to bombed sites remains restricted as of early September 2026 reports. Ongoing diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and the absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader expectations against a test before 2027. Shifts could still occur if talks collapse, material is extracted undetected, or internal debates over nuclear posture accelerate.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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