U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
2%
September 30
4%
$2,924 Vol.
August 31
$2,290 Vol.
2%
September 30
$634 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,924Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,924Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran's Kharg Island in March 2026, amid broader conflict over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have kept the islands central to energy market dynamics, with Kharg handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day. Trader sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty from repeated threats of occupation or blockade to pressure Tehran on oil flows and regional access, tempered by a June memorandum of understanding and avoidance of direct oil infrastructure hits to limit global price spikes. No control shifts have occurred despite deployments and rhetoric, with ongoing strikes and tanker interdictions sustaining volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment or renewed diplomatic deadlines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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