Recent US Treasury authorizations permitting Iranian oil exports and related dollar transactions through August 21, 2026, represent the dominant near-term catalyst for the rial. These measures, tied to a June memorandum framework and nuclear talks, could boost export revenues and ease foreign-exchange pressure if sustained. Persistent high inflation, free-market dollar demand, and any delays or reversals in sanctions relief remain key variables. With the resolution window closing at the end of August, traders are monitoring compliance with license terms, progress toward a broader agreement, and any escalation signals that might prompt policy reversals.