Ongoing tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional proxies remain the dominant driver of airspace risk assessments, following multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR operates normally, though EASA continues to flag elevated threats from potential strikes or Hezbollah actions amid a breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Recent incidents, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile, prompted brief restrictions and airline caution. Traders weigh the likelihood of further escalations or scheduled military developments that could force major civilian flight suspensions before the market resolution date, while noting the airspace has reopened after prior disruptions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$27,116,943 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
August 31
3%
$27,116,943 Vol.
August 31
$1,085,062 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional proxies remain the dominant driver of airspace risk assessments, following multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR operates normally, though EASA continues to flag elevated threats from potential strikes or Hezbollah actions amid a breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Recent incidents, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile, prompted brief restrictions and airline caution. Traders weigh the likelihood of further escalations or scheduled military developments that could force major civilian flight suspensions before the market resolution date, while noting the airspace has reopened after prior disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,116,943Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional proxies remain the dominant driver of airspace risk assessments, following multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR operates normally, though EASA continues to flag elevated threats from potential strikes or Hezbollah actions amid a breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Recent incidents, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile, prompted brief restrictions and airline caution. Traders weigh the likelihood of further escalations or scheduled military developments that could force major civilian flight suspensions before the market resolution date, while noting the airspace has reopened after prior disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,116,943Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional proxies remain the dominant driver of airspace risk assessments, following multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR operates normally, though EASA continues to flag elevated threats from potential strikes or Hezbollah actions amid a breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Recent incidents, including a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile, prompted brief restrictions and airline caution. Traders weigh the likelihood of further escalations or scheduled military developments that could force major civilian flight suspensions before the market resolution date, while noting the airspace has reopened after prior disruptions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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