Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iranian naval threats have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits recently averaging in the single digits to low teens amid attacks, near-misses, and elevated war-risk insurance costs. As of early August 2026, Kpler and JMIC data show just 8 vessels transiting on August 5 and similar subdued levels the prior week, well below pre-conflict averages near 125 daily. These conditions support the market's leading 25-49 bin at 42.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on persistent disruption risks into the August 10 week. Renewed incidents on August 2 and limited non-Iranian vessel entries underscore the uncertainty, with any de-escalation or clearance operations serving as key swing factors for higher bins.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 43%
50-74 28%
75-99 26%
100+ 25%
BARU
BARU
Aug 16, 2026
<25
24%
25-49
43%
50-74
28%
75-99
26%
100+
25%
25-49 43%
50-74 28%
75-99 26%
100+ 25%
BARU
BARU
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$3 Vol.
24%
25-49
$0 Vol.
43%
50-74
$0 Vol.
28%
75-99
$0 Vol.
26%
100+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iranian naval threats have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits recently averaging in the single digits to low teens amid attacks, near-misses, and elevated war-risk insurance costs. As of early August 2026, Kpler and JMIC data show just 8 vessels transiting on August 5 and similar subdued levels the prior week, well below pre-conflict averages near 125 daily. These conditions support the market's leading 25-49 bin at 42.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on persistent disruption risks into the August 10 week. Renewed incidents on August 2 and limited non-Iranian vessel entries underscore the uncertainty, with any de-escalation or clearance operations serving as key swing factors for higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$3Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iranian naval threats have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits recently averaging in the single digits to low teens amid attacks, near-misses, and elevated war-risk insurance costs. As of early August 2026, Kpler and JMIC data show just 8 vessels transiting on August 5 and similar subdued levels the prior week, well below pre-conflict averages near 125 daily. These conditions support the market's leading 25-49 bin at 42.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on persistent disruption risks into the August 10 week. Renewed incidents on August 2 and limited non-Iranian vessel entries underscore the uncertainty, with any de-escalation or clearance operations serving as key swing factors for higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iranian naval threats have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits recently averaging in the single digits to low teens amid attacks, near-misses, and elevated war-risk insurance costs. As of early August 2026, Kpler and JMIC data show just 8 vessels transiting on August 5 and similar subdued levels the prior week, well below pre-conflict averages near 125 daily. These conditions support the market's leading 25-49 bin at 42.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on persistent disruption risks into the August 10 week. Renewed incidents on August 2 and limited non-Iranian vessel entries underscore the uncertainty, with any de-escalation or clearance operations serving as key swing factors for higher bins.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan