Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting vessels linked to Saudi ports have triggered immediate rerouting, with multiple tankers executing U-turns in the Red Sea and traffic dropping sharply to 29 transits on one recent day before a partial rebound to 43. This volatility, amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and advisory warnings from naval forces, compresses expected weekly volumes well below historical baselines near 500-plus. Traders price the <200 and 200-219 bins nearly even because outcomes hinge on whether the embargo holds for Saudi crude and product carriers or if non-Saudi traffic continues at reduced levels; further attacks, rapid de-escalation, or shifts in freight rates and Suez diversions remain key swing variables ahead of the July 27 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
220-239 46%
<200 45%
200-219 45%
240+ 45%
BARU
BARU
Aug 2, 2026
<200
45%
200-219
45%
220-239
46%
240+
45%
220-239 46%
<200 45%
200-219 45%
240+ 45%
BARU
BARU
Aug 2, 2026
<200
$0 Vol.
45%
200-219
$0 Vol.
45%
220-239
$0 Vol.
46%
240+
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting vessels linked to Saudi ports have triggered immediate rerouting, with multiple tankers executing U-turns in the Red Sea and traffic dropping sharply to 29 transits on one recent day before a partial rebound to 43. This volatility, amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and advisory warnings from naval forces, compresses expected weekly volumes well below historical baselines near 500-plus. Traders price the <200 and 200-219 bins nearly even because outcomes hinge on whether the embargo holds for Saudi crude and product carriers or if non-Saudi traffic continues at reduced levels; further attacks, rapid de-escalation, or shifts in freight rates and Suez diversions remain key swing variables ahead of the July 27 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting vessels linked to Saudi ports have triggered immediate rerouting, with multiple tankers executing U-turns in the Red Sea and traffic dropping sharply to 29 transits on one recent day before a partial rebound to 43. This volatility, amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and advisory warnings from naval forces, compresses expected weekly volumes well below historical baselines near 500-plus. Traders price the <200 and 200-219 bins nearly even because outcomes hinge on whether the embargo holds for Saudi crude and product carriers or if non-Saudi traffic continues at reduced levels; further attacks, rapid de-escalation, or shifts in freight rates and Suez diversions remain key swing variables ahead of the July 27 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting vessels linked to Saudi ports have triggered immediate rerouting, with multiple tankers executing U-turns in the Red Sea and traffic dropping sharply to 29 transits on one recent day before a partial rebound to 43. This volatility, amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and advisory warnings from naval forces, compresses expected weekly volumes well below historical baselines near 500-plus. Traders price the <200 and 200-219 bins nearly even because outcomes hinge on whether the embargo holds for Saudi crude and product carriers or if non-Saudi traffic continues at reduced levels; further attacks, rapid de-escalation, or shifts in freight rates and Suez diversions remain key swing variables ahead of the July 27 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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