Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s supreme leader, following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father and injured him, has shaped trader views on any departure from Iran. Credible reporting and Israeli intelligence assessments place him inside the country, likely in a secure Tehran-area shelter or Qom facility while recovering from severe wounds to his legs, face, and arms. Regime sources attribute the lack of appearances, including at Ali Khamenei’s July funeral, to security risks and medical needs rather than exit from Iran; unverified claims of transfer to Russia or elsewhere have been denied by multiple officials. No confirmed evidence of departure has emerged through September 2026, keeping implied probabilities low ahead of potential catalysts such as verified media reports, public sightings, or shifts in IRGC influence over decision-making.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$117,430 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
4%
December 31
6%
$117,430 Vol.
October 31
$90 Vol.
4%
December 31
$428 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s supreme leader, following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father and injured him, has shaped trader views on any departure from Iran. Credible reporting and Israeli intelligence assessments place him inside the country, likely in a secure Tehran-area shelter or Qom facility while recovering from severe wounds to his legs, face, and arms. Regime sources attribute the lack of appearances, including at Ali Khamenei’s July funeral, to security risks and medical needs rather than exit from Iran; unverified claims of transfer to Russia or elsewhere have been denied by multiple officials. No confirmed evidence of departure has emerged through September 2026, keeping implied probabilities low ahead of potential catalysts such as verified media reports, public sightings, or shifts in IRGC influence over decision-making.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$117,430Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s supreme leader, following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father and injured him, has shaped trader views on any departure from Iran. Credible reporting and Israeli intelligence assessments place him inside the country, likely in a secure Tehran-area shelter or Qom facility while recovering from severe wounds to his legs, face, and arms. Regime sources attribute the lack of appearances, including at Ali Khamenei’s July funeral, to security risks and medical needs rather than exit from Iran; unverified claims of transfer to Russia or elsewhere have been denied by multiple officials. No confirmed evidence of departure has emerged through September 2026, keeping implied probabilities low ahead of potential catalysts such as verified media reports, public sightings, or shifts in IRGC influence over decision-making.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,430Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s supreme leader, following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father and injured him, has shaped trader views on any departure from Iran. Credible reporting and Israeli intelligence assessments place him inside the country, likely in a secure Tehran-area shelter or Qom facility while recovering from severe wounds to his legs, face, and arms. Regime sources attribute the lack of appearances, including at Ali Khamenei’s July funeral, to security risks and medical needs rather than exit from Iran; unverified claims of transfer to Russia or elsewhere have been denied by multiple officials. No confirmed evidence of departure has emerged through September 2026, keeping implied probabilities low ahead of potential catalysts such as verified media reports, public sightings, or shifts in IRGC influence over decision-making.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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