Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to well below pre-conflict averages of roughly 130 vessels daily. Recent projectile strikes, including the August 26 incident involving the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels and persistent mine concerns, have deterred operators and favored shadow-fleet or dark-AIS movements. Weekly volumes have stabilized near 100–120 crossings in mid-to-late August amid route restrictions and blacklists, positioning the 20–39 outcome range as the market’s primary implied probability. Ongoing Iran-Oman talks on corridor management and U.S. facilitation efforts represent near-term variables that could influence volumes for the week of August 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 62%
<20 13%
40-59 9%
60-79 8%
BARU
$13,434 Vol.
BARU
$13,434 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
13%
20-39
65%
40-59
9%
60-79
8%
80+
5%
20-39 62%
<20 13%
40-59 9%
60-79 8%
BARU
$13,434 Vol.
BARU
$13,434 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$662 Vol.
13%
20-39
$11,659 Vol.
65%
40-59
$662 Vol.
9%
60-79
$225 Vol.
8%
80+
$226 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to well below pre-conflict averages of roughly 130 vessels daily. Recent projectile strikes, including the August 26 incident involving the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels and persistent mine concerns, have deterred operators and favored shadow-fleet or dark-AIS movements. Weekly volumes have stabilized near 100–120 crossings in mid-to-late August amid route restrictions and blacklists, positioning the 20–39 outcome range as the market’s primary implied probability. Ongoing Iran-Oman talks on corridor management and U.S. facilitation efforts represent near-term variables that could influence volumes for the week of August 31.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$13,434Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to well below pre-conflict averages of roughly 130 vessels daily. Recent projectile strikes, including the August 26 incident involving the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels and persistent mine concerns, have deterred operators and favored shadow-fleet or dark-AIS movements. Weekly volumes have stabilized near 100–120 crossings in mid-to-late August amid route restrictions and blacklists, positioning the 20–39 outcome range as the market’s primary implied probability. Ongoing Iran-Oman talks on corridor management and U.S. facilitation efforts represent near-term variables that could influence volumes for the week of August 31.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$13,434Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to well below pre-conflict averages of roughly 130 vessels daily. Recent projectile strikes, including the August 26 incident involving the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II, combined with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels and persistent mine concerns, have deterred operators and favored shadow-fleet or dark-AIS movements. Weekly volumes have stabilized near 100–120 crossings in mid-to-late August amid route restrictions and blacklists, positioning the 20–39 outcome range as the market’s primary implied probability. Ongoing Iran-Oman talks on corridor management and U.S. facilitation efforts represent near-term variables that could influence volumes for the week of August 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan