Current short-term forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum near 10°C in Wellington on August 6, driven by a southerly airstream advecting cooler sub-Antarctic air masses typical of midwinter. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures overall, consistent with historical August highs of 12–13°C, yet the immediate pattern of showers clearing under southerlies introduces downward bias and day-to-day variability from frontal passages. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 9–12°C range, with 11°C emerging as the market favorite because traders weight both the baseline climatology and residual uncertainty in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
11°C 50%
10°C 34%
12°C 16%
13°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
4%
9°C
5%
10°C
34%
11°C
50%
12°C
16%
13°C
6%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
1%
11°C 50%
10°C 34%
12°C 16%
13°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$20 Vol.
1%
8°C
$26 Vol.
4%
9°C
$10 Vol.
5%
10°C
$23 Vol.
34%
11°C
$20 Vol.
50%
12°C
$13 Vol.
16%
13°C
$10 Vol.
6%
14°C
$10 Vol.
6%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum near 10°C in Wellington on August 6, driven by a southerly airstream advecting cooler sub-Antarctic air masses typical of midwinter. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures overall, consistent with historical August highs of 12–13°C, yet the immediate pattern of showers clearing under southerlies introduces downward bias and day-to-day variability from frontal passages. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 9–12°C range, with 11°C emerging as the market favorite because traders weight both the baseline climatology and residual uncertainty in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$162Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum near 10°C in Wellington on August 6, driven by a southerly airstream advecting cooler sub-Antarctic air masses typical of midwinter. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures overall, consistent with historical August highs of 12–13°C, yet the immediate pattern of showers clearing under southerlies introduces downward bias and day-to-day variability from frontal passages. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 9–12°C range, with 11°C emerging as the market favorite because traders weight both the baseline climatology and residual uncertainty in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$162Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum near 10°C in Wellington on August 6, driven by a southerly airstream advecting cooler sub-Antarctic air masses typical of midwinter. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures overall, consistent with historical August highs of 12–13°C, yet the immediate pattern of showers clearing under southerlies introduces downward bias and day-to-day variability from frontal passages. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 9–12°C range, with 11°C emerging as the market favorite because traders weight both the baseline climatology and residual uncertainty in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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