Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
17%
30°C
33%
31°C
27%
32°C
12%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$158 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$67 Vol.
2%
28°C
$265 Vol.
6%
29°C
$443 Vol.
17%
30°C
$205 Vol.
33%
31°C
$190 Vol.
27%
32°C
$278 Vol.
12%
33°C
$81 Vol.
5%
34°C
$90 Vol.
2%
35°C
$105 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,999Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,999Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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