Recent short-range model runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF highlight modest variability in peak daytime heating for August 3, keeping market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 27°C and 29°C. Typical early-August conditions feature subtropical high pressure with daytime maxima near 28–30°C, modulated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara that can suppress or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C depending on wind direction and timing. Low cloud cover or slight changes in boundary-layer moisture could shift the daily maximum across these thresholds, while the absence of strong synoptic forcing this week limits larger deviations. Updated afternoon model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 3?
28°C 34%
29°C 32%
27°C 30%
26°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 3, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
9%
27°C
30%
28°C
34%
29°C
32%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 34%
29°C 32%
27°C 30%
26°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 3, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
9%
27°C
$0 Vol.
30%
28°C
$0 Vol.
34%
29°C
$20 Vol.
32%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF highlight modest variability in peak daytime heating for August 3, keeping market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 27°C and 29°C. Typical early-August conditions feature subtropical high pressure with daytime maxima near 28–30°C, modulated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara that can suppress or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C depending on wind direction and timing. Low cloud cover or slight changes in boundary-layer moisture could shift the daily maximum across these thresholds, while the absence of strong synoptic forcing this week limits larger deviations. Updated afternoon model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$31Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF highlight modest variability in peak daytime heating for August 3, keeping market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 27°C and 29°C. Typical early-August conditions feature subtropical high pressure with daytime maxima near 28–30°C, modulated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara that can suppress or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C depending on wind direction and timing. Low cloud cover or slight changes in boundary-layer moisture could shift the daily maximum across these thresholds, while the absence of strong synoptic forcing this week limits larger deviations. Updated afternoon model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF highlight modest variability in peak daytime heating for August 3, keeping market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 27°C and 29°C. Typical early-August conditions feature subtropical high pressure with daytime maxima near 28–30°C, modulated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara that can suppress or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C depending on wind direction and timing. Low cloud cover or slight changes in boundary-layer moisture could shift the daily maximum across these thresholds, while the absence of strong synoptic forcing this week limits larger deviations. Updated afternoon model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan