Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds for a foldable iPhone reveal. Multiple supply-chain reports and credible leaks, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, confirm the device—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra with a book-style design, roughly 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner display—will headline the keynote alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. This marks Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years under incoming CEO John Ternus. While production volumes remain limited and shipping could slip, the announcement itself faces negligible barriers beyond an improbable last-minute schedule change.
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BARU
BARU
Sep 9, 2026
96% peluang
BARU
BARU
Sep 9, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds for a foldable iPhone reveal. Multiple supply-chain reports and credible leaks, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, confirm the device—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra with a book-style design, roughly 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner display—will headline the keynote alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. This marks Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years under incoming CEO John Ternus. While production volumes remain limited and shipping could slip, the announcement itself faces negligible barriers beyond an improbable last-minute schedule change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$9,350Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds for a foldable iPhone reveal. Multiple supply-chain reports and credible leaks, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, confirm the device—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra with a book-style design, roughly 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner display—will headline the keynote alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. This marks Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years under incoming CEO John Ternus. While production volumes remain limited and shipping could slip, the announcement itself faces negligible barriers beyond an improbable last-minute schedule change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,350Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds for a foldable iPhone reveal. Multiple supply-chain reports and credible leaks, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, confirm the device—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra with a book-style design, roughly 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner display—will headline the keynote alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. This marks Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years under incoming CEO John Ternus. While production volumes remain limited and shipping could slip, the announcement itself faces negligible barriers beyond an improbable last-minute schedule change.
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